Trump-Biden on knife edge in key states

After more than 100 million people casting their ballots in early voting before election day on Tuesday, both Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden are running neck and neck in a number of swing states, reports BBC. With Donald Trump doing much better than the pollsters predicted, the outcome of the US presidential election shows a tight Trump-Biden race in key states.

While a narrow lead in his must-win state Florida, gave a boost to Trump’s re-election, Arizona, however, was snatched by Biden. Other key states such as Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina are toss-ups.

According to BBC’s projection, Mr Trump will keep hold of Ohio and Missouri, known as a bellwether states because they have so often predicted the eventual winner. He will also win Alabama, Mississippi, Idaho, Wyoming, South Carolina, Kansas, Nebraska, Utah, Louisiana, Indiana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arkansas and West Virginia, all as expected.

Mr Biden, however, will retain his home state of Delaware, along with California, Virginia, New York, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Mexico, Colorado, Vermont, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Washington DC, according to BBC projections. It has also been projected that Montana is leaning Mr Trump’s way, while Minnesota, Nevada, Maine, Hawaii and Rhode Island were trending towards Mr Biden. These projections are based on a mixture of exit poll data and, in most cases, actual votes counted – and are only made where there is a high degree of certainty.

In a state that always votes for one party, the results are easier to be projected as soon as voting ends, based on exit polls. In a closer contest, however, the data depends heavily on the actual count. An exit poll conducted by Edison Research and published by Reuters suggested that four out of 10 voters think that handling of the coronavirus pandemic in the US is “going very badly”. It also suggests that one third of voters cited the economy as the issue that most concerned them. Exit poll data also suggest Biden had the edge with women voters by 57% to 42%, with black voters (87% to 11%), with under-29-year olds (64% to 33%) and among voters with or without a college degree. Trump, however, appeared to hold the advantage with over 65-year olds (51% to 48%).